Indonesia prepares to carry out B40 in January

Because case, costs might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says

B40 will need additional 3 mln loads feedstock, GAPKI says

Malaysia palm oil standard at greatest given that mid-2022

India may withdraw import tax hike amidst inflation, Mistry says

(Adds analyst remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil criteria cost)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recuperate in 2025 after an expected drop this year, but costs are expected to stay elevated due to scheduled growth of the country's biodiesel required, market experts said.

The palm oil benchmark price in Malaysia has risen more than 35% this year, raised by sluggish output and Indonesia's plan to increase the mandatory domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to decrease fuel imports.

Palm oil output next year in leading manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recover by 1.5 million metric lots compared to an estimated drop of just over a million heaps this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research study company Oil World, stated he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million tons next year after a 2.5 million lot drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is anticipated to enhance, provide from in other places and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip a little next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million loads in 2024.

"We would need a recovery in palm in 2025 since combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are decreasing," Mielke stated.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The rate surge in palm oil in the previous 7 weeks has been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke said, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia imposes the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated extra feedstock of around 3 million lots will be required for B40 implementation, deteriorating export supply.

The present palm oil premium has already caused palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke included.

Malaysian palm oil rates are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric load in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest since mid-2022.

"Sentiment today is red-hot and incredibly bullish, we need to be cautious," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods company Godrej International.

He forecast the Malaysian cost around 5,000 ringgit and above up until June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry prompted Indonesia to

think about delaying

B40 execution on issue about its effect on food customers.

Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its

import responsibility hike

enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by John Mair, Jane Merriman and Daren Butler)